The war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas is expected to last a long time, and it’s unlikely that the terrorist group will be permanently dismantled. These are two of the predictions made by Middle East experts from over 35 countries who gathered in Rome on February 4th and 5th for the MED Extraordinary Expert Meeting organized by Ispi.
According to the experts’ survey, 61% believe that hostilities between Israel and Hamas will continue for a long time, 25% think there will be a ceasefire after the intervention of an international coalition, 9% believe that Hamas will remain in control of the Gaza Strip, and only 4% think that the organization will be dismantled. The feasibility of the two-state solution is supported by only 36% of the scholars.
As for a possible escalation, there is no prevailing scenario: 40% consider it “likely,” 34% “unlikely,” 15% “neither likely nor unlikely,” and only 2% “very unlikely.” The survey also addressed the strategies of other regional actors, with a focus on Iran.
According to 70% of the experts, Iran’s objectives include “increasing its role as a regional power,” 15% aim to “prevent any future threat,” and 13% seek to “compromise normalization attempts in the region.” None of the experts believe that Iran wants to “drag the United States into a regional conflict.”
When asked about the effectiveness of these strategies, 70% of the experts responded negatively. Lastly, in an electoral scenario, an eventual victory of Donald Trump in the presidential elections in November is seen as unlikely to pave the way for long-term peace between Israel and Palestine, with 81% of the experts rejecting this possibility and the remaining 18% considering it “possible” but only with extensive concessions to the State of Israel.